On Tuesday night, Providence suffered a one-sided setback at the hands of Florida. The loss, an 83-51 final at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, left the Friars at 6-6. With over one third of the season in the books, Ed Cooley’s group has yet to find their way. The first thought was to look at the numbers for some hints.
On Kenpom.com, the statistics show Providence checking in with a 102 offensive efficiency against 94 on the defensive side of the ball. Both marks are above average and would suggest a better won-lost record. The Friars are playing at a brisk 72-possession per game pace.
Providence is also doing a good job overall in the Four Factors. The effective field goal percentage is 47 percent, while they do allow 49 percent defensively. Their free throw rate is 35 percent to 37 percent of the opposition. The turnover rate is a bit high at 20 percent, but they are forcing opponents into a 25 percent rate on defense. The offensive rebounding percentage shows a +6 (34 percent to 28 percent) Friar advantage. In two of the factors, they have a clear advantage, while being just a bit behind in the other two, but not enough to suggest a .500 record.
Individually, the wealth is spread with seven in the rotation using 17 percent or more of the team possessions. On closer look, Alpha Diallo and Nate Watson combined are taking 53 percent of the Friar field goal attempts. Simply, spreading the wealth a bit more, keeping defenses honest, would be beneficial. Meanwhile Luwane Pipkins, the highly-touted UMass transfer, has struggled to date.
When he guided Fairfield, Cooley was asked about tempo free numbers. His reply was, “the only numbers I care about are those on the scoreboard when the clock hits 0:00.” Cooley has eased his stance a bit, even quoting plus-minus on occasion. In this scenario the Friar mentor would be more inclined to refer to the eye rather than numbers test. Looking how the numbers pan out, suggesting a team playing better than .500 ball, one would have to agree.
The season efficiency margin (offense minus defense) is a respectable +8. In their six wins the margin averages out to +32. In the losses it’s a -16. Obviously that’s quite a swing. The Friars ran up big analytic numbers in wins over Sacred Heart, NJIT, Saint Peter’s and Merrimack. A dozen games is more than a small sample. The numbers to date are enough to tell a story, but not the whole story and not what specifically has to be fixed.
The last three games saw a loss at Rhode Island (an intense rivalry game), a narrow win over Stony Brook at home, followed by Tuesday’s blowout at the hands of Florida.
It’s beyond “too early to panic” or be concerned. Before the ball drops and we greet 2020, the Friars entertain Texas and Georgetown. Both games are in the friendly confines of the “Dunk” – Providence’s Dunkin Donuts Center. The friendly confines of home are welcome but no guarantee – not the way Providence is playing to date.
The answers are difficult to ascertain by the numbers cited. Regardless, Cooley and staff have to come up with a solution – fast. Big East play, with all its challenges and a number of challengers, is set to tip off. Whether the answer is through numbers or eye test, something must change for the Friars.
