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Bubbles, Sitting on the Fence and Brackets Review: 16 oh-so-close NCAA Tournament misses

Many teams miss out on the NCAA Tournament every year. Some are very close to getting in. Some are agonizingly close.

In the past and again reviewing and researching for our recently completed series on the NCAA Tournament bubble over the years, it’s always been hard not to have a lot of empathy for teams where the margin between them getting into the Big Dance or not was razor-thin. It’s especially hard not to feel for teams who lost a close game in their league tourney final, and then were snubbed on Selection Sunday, too, sometimes by the slimmest of margins.

In conjunction with that project, compiled below is a list of 16 of the very nearest misses for the NCAA Tournament since the tourney’s expansion to 64 teams in 1985. All of these teams lost at or near the buzzer in their conference tournament, and then faced a second dose of disappointment when the tourney selections were announced and they (again, in most cases) just barely fell on the wrong side of the fence.

In chronological order:

Wyoming 1986 (20-11 record) The Cowboys were part of a three-way tie for the Western Athletic Conference regular season crown in 1985-86, and they also had the privilege of hosting the WAC Tournament. Wyoming advanced to the final after a pair of two-point wins, but saw its run end with a 65-64 loss to top seed UTEP. Juden Smith put the Miners ahead with 38 seconds left in the game, and two Cowboy shots in the final seconds went off the glass and out-including one by the great and greatly named Fennis Dembo. The next day, the NCAA announced its 64-team field, and two of the three WAC tri-champions (UTEP and Utah) were in, including Utah as an at-large 14 seed. Wyoming was not.

Texas A&M 1986 (20-11 record) Like the WAC this year, the Southwest Conference had regular season tri-champions, including A&M, TCU and Texas. Of the three, the Aggies lasted longest in the SWC tourney, only to fall to fifth-seeded Texas Tech 67-63 in a hard-fought final on Selection Sunday. Rumors on ESPN earlier that day were that the SWC would get a record four teams in the NCAAs, with A&M one of them. Instead, the league received one bid, with the Aggies joining TCU and Texas among some more prominent teams left out.

New Mexico 1987 (25-9 record) Long before it became chic in 2020 to intentionally foul to get the ball back in a tie game, teams were doing it in the 1980s. New Mexico coach Gary Colson attempted to execute that strategy in the WAC Tournament final against Wyoming. Tied at 62-62 with 11 seconds left, UNM fouled the Cowboys’ Sean Dent, a 59% foul shooter. Dent made both shots, the Lobos missed two free throws and three other shots in the final seconds, and Wyoming clinched the WAC’s automatic bid. The foul may have cost the Lobos an NCAA bid. Three WAC teams would get NCAA bids the next day; New Mexico was not one of them, instead relegated to the NIT for the fourth straight year despite 25 wins.

Southern Illinois 1990 (26-7 record) The Salukis won 26 games in the 1989-90 season, including the Missouri Valley regular season title. In the MVC tourney final, though, SIU had the misfortune of running into third-seeded Illinois State playing on its homecourt. The Redbirds edged the Salukis 81-78 to clinch the Valley’s NCAA automatic bid. On Selection Sunday, Southern Illinois was left out of the NCAAs, setting a record for the most wins ever by a team missing the field. The next year, the MVC held its tourney at a neutral site for the first time in St. Louis, where it has stayed since.

Niagara 1993 (23-6 record) The Purple Eagles in 1992-93 had their best season since Calvin Murphy carried them well into the national rankings in 1969-70, and their most wins in nearly 40 years. Niagara finished second to Manhattan by a game in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but a much-anticipated matchup of the top two teams in the tourney final saw Jack Armstrong’s team lead most of the way and up nine with 11 minutes left. The Jaspers tied it at 67-67 in the final minute, then with two seconds left Manhattan’s Chris Williams was fouled. He missed the first but made the second of two free throws, giving the Jaspers a 68-67 win. Niagara probably wasn’t a serious at-large candidate without a real high-end, take-notice win, but from here is has always been tough to see two excellent teams play a high-level tournament final, and the thin margin between an NCAA bid and missing out.

Murray State 1994 (23-5 record) The Racers were the best team in the Ohio Valley Conference, rolling through with a 15-1 record three games better than any other team. In the OVC final, though, Murray State ran into defending tourney champion Tennessee State and Carlos Rogers. The future NBA first-round pick scored 38 points, the final two the game-winning dunk with 20 seconds left to give the Tigers a 73-72 win. The next weekend, Murray State would be left out of the NCAA Tournament, resulting in head coach Scott Edgar unloading on not just the selection committee, but some schools that would not play his team.

Arkansas-Little Rock 1996 (23-6 record) The Trojans took a huge step in Wimp Sanderson’s second year, climbing from 17 to 23 wins and a share of the Sun Belt Conference championship. UALR faced co-champions New Orleans at home in the league tourney final, and a classic game ensued. It went down to the final seconds, but down one with the ball under its basket with four seconds left, UNO got the ball to Tyrone Garris, who drove and scored at the buzzer to give the Privateers a 57-56 win. The Trojans were squarely on the bubble but were not selected for the NCAA Tournament.

SW Missouri State 1997 (24-8 record) The school now known as Missouri State started the season strong (10 straight wins) and finished well too, winning seven straight before facing top seed Illinois State in the MVC Tournament final. The Bears were edged 75-72 as the Redbirds’ Rico Hill scored 31 points. Seven days later, SMS was probably the most notable snub from the NCAA Tournament, its 24 wins easily the most of any bubble team left out and the first of a series of much-publicized near-misses for the Bears over the next 10 years.

Buffalo 2005 (22-9 record) This one had multiple layers of heartbreak for the Bulls, who were one of the hottest teams in the country winning nine of their last 10 games going into the MAC Tournament final against Ohio University. Buffalo led in the final by 19 points in the second half, only to see the Bobcats storm back to tie the game. The Bulls then took the lead with 11 seconds left in overtime on a jumper by Turner Battle, but Leon Williams scored on a putback with a second left to give Ohio an 80-79 victory. Despite its strong finish and seeming to distinguish itself at the end of the season in a MAC that had seven teams finish within a game of the top record, Buffalo was left out of the NCAA Tournament, that one point at the end of overtime proving to be the difference.

Mississippi State 2010 (23-11 record) The Bulldogs were so close to winning the SEC’s automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament they could taste it. MSU led national No. 2-ranked Kentucky in the final seconds of regulation until Demarcus Cousins scored on a putback to send the game to overtime. The Bulldogs eventually lost by a single point in overtime. Later that day, Mississippi State also was left out of the NCAA tourney despite 23 wins, with a 2-5 mark against the top 50 plus five sub-100 losses the negatives on their resume.

UTEP 2011 (25-9 record) The Miners trailed for exactly seven seconds of the Conference USA tourney final against Memphis this year. Unfortunately for Texas-El Paso, it was at the end of the game as Joe Jackson made two free throws with seven seconds left and the Tigers prevailed 67-66. The Miners led by 12 points with six minutes left and also were playing at home at the Don Haskins Center. The next day, UTEP also was left out of the NCAA Tournament, turned down with a very bubbly resume including a 1-3 top 50 mark but a win over Michigan and a 6-7 mark against the top 100.

Drexel 2012 (27-7 record) A 19-game winning streak for the Dragons finally ended in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament final with a 59-56 loss to VCU in what was essentially a road game at the Richmond Coliseum. The Rams were in the Final Four the year before, seeming to validate the respect given the CAA that year when it received a record three bids. Thus, one would’ve thought Drexel winning the regular season title in that same CAA plus being red-hot from January onward would’ve been a serious plus. Instead, the selection committee apparently focused on the Dragons’ RPI (66) and low number of top-shelf wins (1-1 vs. the top 50, 4-3 against the top 100).

Oral Roberts 2012 (27-6 record) ORU in 2005 also could’ve made this list, and both stung for coach Scott Sutton. The Golden Eagles dominated the Summit League this year (17-1 record) but were stunned in the league tourney semifinals by a single point by fourth-seeded Western Illinois, 54-53. That hurt, but what may have hurt even more was on Selection Sunday when it was revealed that Oral Roberts was the first team out of the field, and would’ve been in as an at-large if not for St. Bonaventure upsetting Xavier in the Atlantic 10 final that day.

Southern Mississippi 2013 (25-9 record) These Golden Eagles had their chances in the Conference USA final against Memphis that included 15 ties and 18 lead changes. Southern Miss led by two in the final seconds of the first overtime before the Tigers’ Joe Jackson tied it, but Memphis pulled away in the second OT for a 91-79 win. The next day, Southern Miss held easily the highest RPI (31) of any team left out of the NCAA Tournament, with a resume heavy on wins against the 101-200 range but light on top shelf victories (0-5 vs. the top 50, 3-7 against the top 100).

Murray State 2015 (27-5 record) After a struggling 2-4 start to the season, the Racers were smoking hot the rest of the season, winning 25 straight until the OVC Tournament final. There, they faced budding rival Belmont, and a classic game ensued. Both teams shot over 50%, but Murray State appeared in good shape in the final seconds with a two-point lead until Taylor Barnette hit a three-pointer with 3.2 seconds left that would give the Bruins an 88-87 win. Like Drexel in 2012, despite a long winning streak the Racers were shunned on Selection Sunday; in fact, the selection committee seemed to almost try to make a point about Murray, not even listing it among the first four teams out.

UNC Greensboro 2019 (28-6 record) Rarely has a final score been more deceiving than Wofford’s 70-58 win over UNCG in the Southern Conference tournament final this year. The Spartans led most of the game and were up five with just over five minutes left, and the teams were tied with under 3 1/2 minutes left. The Terriers closed an incredible SoCon season with a 20-3 run to finish the game. It wouldn’t be UNC Greensboro’s only near miss over the next week, for the Spartans on Selection Sunday were identified as the first team out of the NCAA Tournament field, and were in the bracket Saturday night until Oregon won the Pac-12 tournament title to take an unexpected automatic bid.

Special honorable mention:

Centenary 1990 (22-8 record) The Gentlemen weren’t really an at-large threat this year, but still deserve mention. The 1989-90 season marked what turned out to be the last best chance for Centenary to make the NCAA Tournament in its run at the NCAA Division I level, before moving to Division III in 2011. The Gents won the Trans America Athletic Conference (now Atlantic Sun) regular season championship-their last D-I league title-and 22 games. Like Southern Illinois in this same year, the Gents also had to play a true road game in the TAAC tourney final. Despite beating Arkansas-Little Rock on the road in the regular season a month earlier, this time Centenary lost to the Trojans 105-95. The Gents didn’t get into the NCAA Tournament, which wasn’t a shock. That a team that won its league and defeated Baylor, Texas A&M and Washington State didn’t even make the NIT was a terrible oversight.

Coming next time: wrapping this project up with one writer’s view of the 16 biggest NCAA Tournament snubs in the 64+ team era

Previous:
Introduction
Part 1: 1985-89
Part 2: 1990-94
Part 3: 1995-99
Part 4: 2000-04
Part 5: 2005-09
Part 6: 2010-14
Part 7: 2015-19

 

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